Thursday, December 27, 2018

The Economic (realities laid bare) Decline Of Europe!

We should take a look at the period identified by the EU as the 'Great Recession' 2008 say through 2017.  In general it is right to say that output has declined throughout this period across the developed world. However, when you take a more specific look you start to see comparisons which show Europe as the sick region of the world.

Such as:

The American economy grew throughout this period by 13%.  If you look at the rest of the world outside of Europe and you compartmentalise the ROW, UK and Canada then you have 21.2% (ROW), 8.5% (UK), Canada (14.4%) The Eurozone by only 2.2% with Germany by far the stellar performer at 7.8%, France 4.6%.  Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece were minus 1.1%, 4.1%, 7.4% and 27.3%  Hence you start to see the divisions and animosity occurring as I mention in my previous blog.   By Contrast Singapore a developed to all intense and purpose western developed economy grew at 40%.

The decline of Greece is startling as it is equivalent of 1930s US decline. How the Greeks have suffered during this period is quite appalling.
When you broaden this survey out and look at Switzerland 10.4% growth.  Norway 9.4%.

Looking further out China during this period has grown 100%.  In short creating another Italy and Germany combined. You don't need to focus on this number in relation to China other than consider where the future really lays.  The growth in Malaysia, Singapore, India even Indonesia these have all been stellar performers during this period.

It's easy to look at individual countries within Europe such as Sweden or Denmark, Germany and dismiss the analogy the EU is in decline.  This would be folly! The Euro was political and not an economic decision.  Until the very structure of the Eurozone is cohesive it can not benefit all! Of course individual countries are against such a structure.

Wednesday, December 26, 2018

The Christian plight of Asia Abibi

Click this link to sign the petition “Stand up for Asia Abibi provide her and her family with a sanctuary.

Since hearing of the Asia Abibi appalling situation I have been moved to highlight her case across a number of forums.  This is a Pakistani lady who has spent 10years on death row kept in the most disgusting conditions. Anyone who has read the Benazir Bhutto book "Daughter of the East" will understand graphically just how the prisons are structured.  However, I'm happy to be proved wrong if conditions have changed.

To recap the situation as it appears, this young lady was fruit picking in the fields.  The day was hot as you can imagine in a country 30 degrees north of the equator. She took a glass of water from a shared cup.  Her fellow pickers took issue with this as they were Muslim, she was Christian. Stating that her religion made the cup dirty and that they can no longer drink from it. Following I presume there were words which caused offence.  With the result Asia Abibi was sentenced to death.   Over time after 9+years her lawyer was able to have her released, I presume Imran Khan on his election supported this move and the folly of the sentence.

My first question in all of this:

Why was it acceptable to claim a persons religion being Christian makes a cup dirty when used. Surely and logically it is just as soiled when used by anyone of any religion. To me to make such a claim is, here in Pakistan where blasphemy Laws apply is just that. Blasphemy.  Which is levelled against the Christian god.  Which incidentally as Muslim's believe there is but one Allah, they accept that we, whether Jewish or Christian, God is the same?

If you are to use the Pakistan rule book the claim that the cup was dirty by Christianity was blasphemy and should have been dealt with the same sentence!

Now Pakistan is predominately Islamic and considers itself an Islamic state.  We should take a moment here and consider.

Islam is approx 95% lslam, 94% Sunni and 6% Shiite.
Hindus approx 1.9%
Christians approx 1.6%
Ahmadi approx 1.2%

Having spent some time in Pakistan I am acutely aware of the day to day fear that Christian's live with in this society.

This aside this young lady and her family are in serious danger. Should their whereabouts be disclosed for sure her life will be taken.  It is even not safe to assume that her protection will protect her.

It is therefore unacceptable that her plight to date has not been answered by the west. For sure she and her family qualify for refugee status far greater than the economic migrants arriving at our shores.

Now here is the issue we give £463M direct to Pakistan in aid. A country that discriminates against our values and persecutes its minorities who share our values.  They do so in the most horrific way.

If they consider Christianity dirty then they for sure would consider our money considerably dirtier?

We the UK have for far to long pandered to the growing Islamic sector of our populous.  So much so that we the Christian element now feel marginalised and threatened. This has to change. 

Now l hear shouts of racism to that I shout back! This is to do with Asia Abibi it is to do with the Yazidi’s. It is to do with the burning of churches across all corners of the globe. It is even if you look more deeply to do with the persecution of Shiites at the hands of the Sunni.

There was a man by all accounts a great man long since past.  He was tipped to be the next leader of the labour party. That was until his speech famously entitled 'Rivers Of Blood'.  Since that speech successive governments have worked tirelessly, even more so in the case of the Blair government, to bring that prophecy true. At the time the speech was general but it could easily be broaden out to included Rivers of Christian blood.

Times have changed.  For sure we know what they are capable of. This needs to be arrested before it is too late.  In this era middle east Islam does not integrate!  To avoid the Enoch Powell's prohecy we should recognise that fact and act.  As a start we should not play to their whims and needs and exercise our rule of law and only our rule of law. Disband all associations that sponsor a variation from the way we live such as: the Islamic Sharia council.  Sharia law has no place in our society it should not be practised even voluntary. The aim here is integration.

Tuesday, December 25, 2018

No Deal The dream Of The Naive

Wise Words Indeed
The more we speak about no deal is not an option the more it is likely. Really please let the adults in. The EU have played to our paranoia in the hope that we reverse the decision or accept incarceration in perpetuity. For the EU this is the perfect scenario as they will no longer need to be concerned by their northern protagonist. They can move forward with their project with new bullying vigour.

Remainers I say to you; The EU was in trouble prior to the UK referendum. It has travelled in one direction creating a monolithic underperforming state at the expense of individual nations. Euro scepticism is not solely British. It can be found that Eurosceptic parties have substantially increased their popularity in France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Spain, Portugal and Greece. Even in Germany, the anti-euro party, the Alternative für Deutschland (AFD), has risen from nowhere to gain 96 seats in the Bundestag.

Whether you like it or not the EU is failing economically the introduction of the Euro was political and not based on sound economic principles. It has been a disaster for the Med. But more importantly its has failed its people. The northern states are increasingly frustrated with the Mediterranean states. Even France is slowly moving in the direction of the Latin quarter. Hence why Macron is pushing for more integration. But more integration will bring yet more regulation and stifle yet more competition.

The issue of the EU is further heighten by free movement compounded by the Middle East turmoil. This has fractured our culture and should not be taken lightly whichever side of the divide you are on.  

For me the EU needs to substantially change tack if it is to survive. It needs to go back to its roots. No matter how convenient the Euro is we need to look at the Euro structure. Abandon the Werner report and then it would be worthy of being a progressive dynamic member.

Leave we must if Europe is to survive.

The Turkey With Brexit stuffing

As we settle for our traditional christmas fayre.  I'm reminded of the ghosts of the year just past. I see a bowl of Scottish Sprouts grown in the bonny Blairs of the highlands. Sadly cold and past their sell by date. The tray of apparent Adonis'  a name passed to our wild boar as Greek tales would be told, cosetted in bacon blankets they are strangely wet and watery as they escape the cosy house of their peers. The Clegg sauce made from the wheat of the Yorkshire hills dissapointingly stale and lacking the freshness of such newly Brexit minted loaves.  Parsnips old and withered sadly no longer in the Egyptian form of a Clarke. Not forgetting the Major ingredient the turkey sourced from the efficient farms of France.  Cooked to the regulated time allotted and now as expected bland and tasteless as ever.  Amazingly, we have mum Edwina standing by to provide the free range Yorkshire mix should the puddings be required.

Arriving by a gas guzzling Junker is the Christmas wine, sauvignan house blanc and house vin rouge courtesy of the quality department from the reject rooms above the EU cellars.

As we begin our feast we ponder in our prayers the £39billion. Whilst mindful of the lonely and sadly missing €5b being the shortfall in the EU unapproved audited accounts. 

As we raise a prayer that the snowy nights are not regulated such that we have to warn of the whitness of snow.  Just as Salmon has to be labelled for it surprisingly contains fish.

Our Carny provides the amusment the name we have for our novelty gravy boat as it plays the anthem from our distant past.  Pouring from our Carny boat the gravy is a thick foggy sauce.  We wonder whether we over did our internal treasury forecasts thus spoiling the gravy as it flops onto the Major ingredient, spilling over the Adonis' while they are strangely unaware as to their role on this festive plate.  The Sprouts have ducked and dived in every corner of Europe pleading in the hope that the Turkey contribution can be saved. Still blissfully unware as to the decisions which have already been taken. As the Sprouts still trying to bring life to the Union that's preoccupied with the magnitude of the CAP and how to wrap for Christmas the remaining small parts to be distributed to the other 26.

As lunch progresses we move to the Xmas pud but sadly we find the cream is now Sour-by the beautiful domed and perfectly formed Christmas pudding with it's sprig of holy. I am reminded of the beauty of St Pauls.

Fortunately Mother searches to her left and finds the crackers scattered across the house benches together with a little but elusive but still we manage a liberal portion of Cheddar to raise our festive cheer.

We all relax and ponder the New Year and the joy it will brexiting.

Monday, December 24, 2018

Opportunity Leave Or No Opportunity Stay

To a large extent I will frustrate a high proportion of individuals across a spectrum of disciplines.

Let's not get out of context here.  The referendum was run and the result came down on the side of leave.  Sadly as a result of this it has divided the nation for many reasons.  This division which nobody can deny is hugely apparent across all walks of life.

But worse it has been exploited by the EU in order to prevent our departure.  Our departure will undoubtedly weaken the Union going forward. But, also more sinister is the efforts of "our own" Tony Blair, Clegg, Clarke, Major, Adonis etc. They have all made overtures to the EU to fudge the negotiation, frustrate the result, in short punish the British people. Punish us for the audacity of wishing to be sovereign. The very people who should be batting for us, who should be champions of democracy. In a way they belong in Venezuela or Suharto's Indonesia.

There are calls for a second referendum, a peoples vote. But this is so wrong on so many levels.

1. It demeans our intelligence. We knew what leaving meant. When you resign your job and you walk out the front door you submit your pass key, leave your company laptop. You dream of freedom. Your weekends are free of thoughts of Monday.

Hopefully your new venture will of course bring anxiety but you face it with new enthusiasm. But what you don't expect is keep popping back into your office unannounced as though you haven't left. Of course, you keep your relationships and where possible you do business together going forward.

2. Let's say we have a second referendum and the result swings 52% remain 48% leave. This result is on a lower turnout which for sure it will (remember the lady from, I think Bristol). This will not be the end of the conflict. Parliament will be even more divided as will the people.

3. If we have a second referendum then we open the door to a Scottish referendum again and again until they have the answer they want.  This is paralysis.

Please do not get me wrong I am not anti Europe nor am I against being part of it.  Over the next few blogs I will detail why we should seek change and why we can go alone into what is a changing world. Structural, economic and cultural changes are happening which require a dynamic approach.

There are many examples that exist in the world today that have made a huge success of their independence, their dynamism and their proximity to huge markets. Some, of course have a history of brutality, yet they continue to flourish, you could argue against all odds.

I have worked many years primarily in the blue chip space but also with SMEs assisting in the establishment of companies, facilitating new opportunities and manoeuvring around graft.

On that subject. Avoidance of graft is a passion of mine. I wonder about the loosely unsigned audited accounts of the EU whereas much as €5B is unaccounted for.

I do not see the black side of our departure, but I do understand the fear that exists.  Particularly when jobs are identified to flow across the channel. My experience of this is that it will not happen!

Our labour laws our regulation our pure dynamism will keep the trade flowing.  Remember it needs to flow both ways.  The world is more complex and acutely aware of protectionist behaviours.  The EU is protectionist. German cars are not so easily accepted around the world etc.. Why would they rock their biggest market?

BBC, Blimp & phallic symbols